October 16

10/16 - The biggest support for 2.0%+ GDP growth in 2023 (and no recession) came from the lack of any serious economic shocks like fuel spikes, inflation, war, and pandemic that suffocated the economy during the prior 3 years. But economic risks are higher again. And while no single issue can knock a solid U.S. economy off the tracks, a combination of smaller threats could derail GDP in 2024. The biggest blows could come from fuel prices and interest rates. Gasoline and diesel prices are being pressured higher by Saudi/Russian production cuts, and now another Middle Eastern war. $4+ gas prices are possible, 7.5%+ mortgage rates have slowed the housing market, and 25%+ rates on credit card debt could push consumers over the edge. Add in the potential for a government shutdown, the resumption of student loan payments, and a useless election-year Congress – and it all adds up to big challenges for 2024.