January 16

1/16 - Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI or Avian Flu) claimed the lives of nearly 58M U.S. birds in 2022 - mostly turkeys & egg layers - and that trend will likely continue in 2023. Effective vaccination exists. Unfortunately, trade barriers that would exclude vaccinated U.S. poultry from several important foreign markets have discouraged domestic vax usage. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA estimated 2022 turkey production to be 6.0% below 2021 levels. Egg output for 2022 was down 2.3%. The USDA said whole turkey prices averaged $154.50/cwt in 2022, up 25.8% from 2021, and forecast average prices for 2023 to be even higher at $160.00/cwt. The USDA said NY large eggs averaged $2.82 per dozen in 2022, up 138% from a $1.18 average in 2021. Egg prices are forecast to be $2.05 per dozen (on average) in 2023, given a projected 4.3% increase in output.