July 5

7/5 – Protein supplies continue to tighten. In its June 24 cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories were 11.85M head on June 1, up 1.2% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in May were down 2.1% - and will likely continue to decline through the 2nd half of 2022, leading to lower beef supplies. Blame it on drought and sky-high hay & feed prices. In last week’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs report, the USDA pegged the U.S. hog herd at 72.5M head, down 0.9% from a year ago. Total market hogs are also down 0.9%; the breeding herd down 0.8%. Farrowing intentions through year’s end are 1.2% below 2021 levels. Offsetting declines in pork output are plummeting U.S. pork exports to China - as China’s hog herd has recovered from losses due to African Swine Fever. Jan-through-Apr U.S. pork exports to China were 118.1M lbs, down 74.7% from 466.5M in 2021.