July 25

7/25 - In Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories were 11.34M head on July 1, up 0.4% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in June were down 2.4% - and will likely continue to decline through the 2nd half of 2022. Heifers accounted for 39.2% of feedlot inventory, up 2.9% from 2021, and far exceeding the 36% threshold that historically indicates herd liquidation. Blame it on multi-year drought, heat, and sky-high hay/feed prices. In its semi-annual inventory report, the USDA said there were 98.8M cattle/calves in the U.S. on July 1, down 2% from a year ago. In June’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 0.1% decline in beef output for 2022 followed by a 7.1% drop in 2023. USDA forecast 2023 cattle prices to average $153.00/cwt, up 8.3% from $141.30 for 2022. Cattle futures set a 7-year high of $144.10/cwt on 4/21/22 and remain strong at $137.38 (7/22).