May 16

5/16 – By our calculations, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI or Avian Flu) has resulted in the culling of 28.5M egg layers, 4.9M turkeys, and 1.7M broilers. The egg-laying flock is 7% lower than a year ago. The USDA has bumped its 2022 egg price forecast from $1.36 per dozen to $1.96 over the past 2 months (vs $1.18 for 2021). HPAI has mostly spared the broiler flock. Even so, broiler hatchery is flat and breeder issues (rooster performance) are a continuing problem. Eggs set into incubators are up 0.9% in year-to-date, but chicks placed for grow out (ytd) are down 0.3% from a year ago. Fewer eggs set in March/April (+0.53%) vs Jan/Feb (+1.3%) likely mean a return to negative year-over-year placements in May/June. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA projected broiler production to be up 1.2% in 2022 and 0.6% in 2023. Boneless skinless breast (USDA) closed at a record high $3.54/lb Friday (5/13).