December 5

12/5 – CME cattle futures set fresh 7-year highs on Friday (12/2), closing at $153.35/cwt. The USDA is forecasting 2023 cattle prices to average $164.00/cwt, up 8.2% from $144.15 for 2022. Beef supplies look to be tight through 2025. The USDA is projecting a cattle liquidation-driven 1.4% increase in beef output for 2022, followed by a huge 7.3% production drop in 2023. Consumer resistance to high beef prices will shift retail buying to chicken and pork, easing some beef demand. But what about beef trimmings? Both dairy and beef cow liquidation, along with solid imports, helped cap 90% lean beef trimmings prices at roughly $2.70 per pound (average) for 2022, up just 4.7% from a year ago. Domestic 90s supplies look to be lower in 2023, but average prices for the year should remain sub-$3 if higher U.S. trimmings prices attract more imports from Australia and Brazil.