November 21

11/21 - In Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories totaled 11.71M head on Nov 1, down 2.0% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in Oct were down 6.1%. Drought has been the driving factor, burning-up pastures and forcing producers to liquidate feeders at younger ages and lighter weights. Drought-stricken states appear to be tapped out on new placements, with AZ (-22%), CA (-15%), IW (-10%), MN (-17%), OK (-10%), and TX (-14%) all percentage double-digits behind year-ago levels in Oct. In Nov’s WASDE, the USDA projected a liquidation-driven 1.4% increase in beef output for 2022, followed by a huge 7.3% drop in 2023. Beef supplies will be depressed at least through 2025. The USDA forecast 2023 cattle prices to average $164.00/cwt, up 8.2% from $144.15 for 2022. CME cattle futures set fresh 7-year highs, closing at $153.08/cwt on Friday (11/18).