January 31

1/31 - Geopolitics is helping light a fire under grain prices. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter, and Ukraine is #4 globally in wheat exports and #3 in corn. Russian wheat exports are already down roughly 30% since July 2021, due to restrictions aimed at curbing domestic inflation. Ukraine has strong wheat supplies and is not currently curbing exports. Ukraine’s corn exports are also record-high this crop year, but any military conflict could bring that to a halt quickly. That disruption potentially would send Ukraine customers (China, Egypt, Africa) to Euro exporters and to the U.S. where drought has already diminished our supplies. Chicago (CME) wheat futures closed at $7.86 per bushel on Friday (1/28). That’s down from 11-year highs of $8.56 in Nov, but up $.45 over the past 2 weeks. CME wheat averaged $4.93 in 2019; $5.49 in 2020 and $7.02 in 2021.