July 19

7/19 - In last week’s WASDE, the USDA said larger corn supplies will more than offset increased exports and feed usage. This year’s crop stats are holding up despite below average precipitation. Last week’s crop progress report was very close to a year ago with 65% of the corn crop rated good-to-excellent; just 8% poor-to-very poor. Corn silking was at 26% vs the same (26%) a year ago and a 5-year average of 30%. The corn stocks-to-use ratio for 2021/22 was raised from 9.2% to 9.6%, but the (still) slim surplus makes weather this summer a huge concern. The USDA lowered its 2021/22 corn price forecast from $5.70 to $5.60 per bushel – still well above $4.40 for 2020/21. Corn spot futures prices, which averaged $5.39 per bushel in Q1, hit 9-year highs of $7.72 on 5/7. The Sept. contract is now significantly lower at $5.56, while cash prices are a buck higher at $6.56 (7/16).