April 12

4/12 - In Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA projected greater corn feed use (up 50M bushels), increased corn used for ethanol (+25M bu) and larger exports (+75M bu). As a result, 2020/21 ending stocks were slashed by 10% to just 1.352B bushels – and the corn stocks-to-use ratio dropped to 9.1%. Historically, stocks-to-use below 10% has been very bullish for corn prices. Looking toward this year’s crop prospects, meteorologists are calling for a hot, dry “La Niña” summer that could further reduce crop yield. The USDA left its 2020/21 corn price forecast unchanged (for now) at $4.30/bu. Corn futures, which were $3.08 per bushel in Aug 2020, are now well supported at 8-year highs of $5.77 (4/9). At 6.3M tons, U.S. corn exports in February were the highest February on record. March exports, expected to be 9M tons or better, will shatter all previous monthly records.