March 29

3/29 - Last week’s USDA Hogs & Pigs report has thrown lighter fluid onto prices for spring grilling season. The total hog/pig inventory was 74.8M head on 3/1/21, down 1.8% from a year ago and down 3.3% from last quarter (12/1/20). Breeding inventory was 2.5% below year-ago. The Dec-Feb pig crop was down 1.4% from 2020. Sows farrowed Dec-Feb were 0.9% below 2020. Producers intend to farrow just 6.2M sows Mar-Aug 2021, down 3.4% from 2020. Two demand wildcards loom over 2021. The first is: How much pent-up demand come from Americans as vaccinations free people to gather socially and eat in restaurants? And the second is: Has China rebuilt its hog herd enough to wean itself off of U.S. pork imports, or will they continue to buy at 2020’s record pace? Hog futures that averaged $69.06/cwt in Jan, have soared to 7-yr highs of $100.80/cwt (3/26).