September 21

9/21 – Soybean futures, which had dropped to 12-year lows of $7.91 per bushel in 2019, soared to a 2-year high of $10.43 on Friday. It was trade wars with China that led to last year’s plunge, and it’s Chinese buying that’s driving this year’s rally. There is debate over whether China actually needs the product, or if this is just election year politics. But China will eventually need large amounts of corn and soymeal to rebuild its ASF-devastated hog herd. Soymeal, which had dipped to $280 per ton on weaker, Covid-reduced feed demand from U.S. hog producers, has also rebounded to $337. Soy-oil futures, which hit a 14-yr low of $.2499 per pound in April, have rebounded to $.3523. In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA slashed 2019/20 soybean oil ending stocks by 10.6%, from 2.06B to 1.85B lbs., and raised its 2020/21 soy-oil forecast from $.30 to $.32 per pound.