August 31

8/31 – Broiler flock numbers are struggling to recover. Chicks placed for grow-out, which were -7.6% in April and -5.6% in May, are still running negative vs. a year ago – down 2.5% for the first 3 weeks of Aug. Lower bird numbers are being partially offset by heavier weights. The USDA projects broiler output to be up 1.7% in 2020, as a big Q1 will be dragged down by declines (year-over-year) in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Producers have been trying to realign supply, given the big drop in foodservice demand. Breast meat supplies are back in balance and prices are comparable to 2019. Boneless, skinless breast at $1.04/lb may hit $1.10 ahead of Labor Day before dropping below $.90 by Nov. Wings are another story. Lower bird numbers and strong QSR demand has supplies struggling to keep up. Whole wings (USDA) at $2.09/lb could be $1.90 or higher through year’s end.