February 17

2/17 – In Friday’s WASDE, the USDA lowered its corn export estimate while increasing corn usage for ethanol – and left most other numbers (yield, planted acres, production) unchanged. The USDA’s 2019/20 planted acreage forecast at 89.7M acres, is up from 88.9M a year ago. But another year of saturated soil (so far) makes that forecast suspect. Unless growing areas get a dry spring, it’s difficult to imagine an increase in planted acres this year. That bullish backdrop is being offset by fears of a big drop in export demand due to Coronavirus – and no specific help for corn in Phase One of the China trade deal/truce. Corn futures were $3.89/bushel on 1/14, the day before the trade agreement was signed, and have been mostly lower since closing at $3.77 on Friday (2/14). Conversely, soybeans (which China needs) have rebounded from $8.72 to $8.93 per bushel.