November 30

11/30 - In the month of November, the CME block cheese market plummeted from $2.78 to $1.68 per pound, while the barrel market dropped from $2.53 to $1.42. Cheese prices during 2020 plummeted to $1.00 per pound (4/15) in response to reduced Covid foodservice usage, then soared to $3.00 (7/13) on sharp demand for the USDA Farmers to Families Food Box program. Now, milk production is rising (up 2.3% in Oct) in response to much higher (than pre-Covid) milk prices and output looks to stay elevated even as further funding for Food Box is uncertain. Cheese supplies are likely to build through winter and set up a bearish situation for dairy prices. The USDA is projecting block cheese to average $1.8250 per pound in 2021, compared to a roller-coaster average of $1.9650 on 2020. Block cheese futures prices for 2021 are currently averaging $1.75 per pound.