November 16

11/16 - China has huge feed needs to rebuild its ASF-decimated hog herd, and has been a big buyer of U.S. corn and soybeans. In last week’s WASDE, the USDA increased its 2020/21 corn export forecast from 2.33B to 2.65B, 49% above 2019/20 levels. The USDA also lowered corn yield from 178.4 to 175.8 bushels per acre. The export & yield changes helped sink projected 2020/21 ending stocks from 2.17B to 1.70B bushels. Subsequently, USDA increased its 2020/21 corn price forecast from $3.60 to $4.00 per bushel, the highest since 2013. Corn futures, which were $3.08 as recently as Aug, have climbed to $4.10 per bushel. Soybean futures, which hit 12-year lows of $7.91 per bushel in 2019, are now at 4-year highs of $11.41. Soymeal, which had dipped to $280 per ton on Covid-reduced feed demand from U.S. hog & poultry producers, has also rebounded, to $388.