January 13

1/13 - Friday’s WASDE report should have been bearish for corn prices. The USDA increased 2019/20 corn yield from 167.0 to 168.0 bushels per acre, bumped production from 13.66 to 13.69M bushels and cut projected exports from 1.85 to 1.78M bushels. Instead, traders are locked in on the prospects for a bump in exports associated with phase-one for the U.S.-China trade deal. Corn futures closed at $3.85 on Jan 10, not far off the recent high of $3.91 on Jan 2. The USDA left its 2019/20 corn price forecast unchanged at $3.85 per bushel. The USDA cut 2019/20 all-wheat ending stocks from 974 to 965M bushels, the lowest in 5 years, but left its 2019/20 price forecast unchanged at $4.55/bushel. Chicago wheat futures, which had fallen to $4.47 in early September, have rebounded to $5.64 (1/10). Similarly, Kansas City's hard winter wheat has gone from $3.62 to $4.94 per bushel.