November 18

11/18 – Last week, China lifted a ban on poultry imports from the U.S. that has been in place since highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was detected in the U.S. in 2015. The U.S. has been HPAI free since 2017. In 2016/17, China had to confront its own outbreak of avian flu. This included human infections, a lack of public trust in chicken and destocking its poultry inventory to control the disease. But poultry consumption in China is recovering, and given China’s pork losses from ASF, 2019 Chinese poultry imports look to be double 2018 levels. China’s protein deficit is a huge wildcard on a shortening horizon. Industry analysts say potential U.S. exports in 2020 could be as large as $1B for chicken paws and another billion in other chicken products. Turkey exports could add an additional $100M in U.S. exports and poultry breeding stock at least $60M more.