Just a month ago it was reported that Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) had spread from birds to dairy cows. This past Thursday, the FDA said that HPAI in dairy cows is widespread, with 1 in 5 milk samples taken from grocery stores testing positive for HPAI gene fragments. On Friday, the FDA clarified that fragments are not live virus, which is killed off during the pasteurization process, and that milk is safe for consumption.

In Friday’s cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Apr 1st were 11.82M head, up 1.5% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in March were down 12.3%, and marketings down 13.7% from last year. Herd liquidation may be slowing. Last week’s U.S. drought monitor showed some lingering issues in Kansas and Iowa, but mostly improvement over a year ago and expectations of better grazing conditions this spring.

Last week, the Labor Dept. reported that the Consumer Price Index for March was up 3.5% from a year ago. Driving the index higher: shelter costs, representing 36.2% of the CPI, were up 5.7% - and showing no signs of abating. So now - faced with the combination of higher-than-expected GDP growth, a stronger-than-expected jobs market, and sticky inflation – the Federal Reserve will likely shift gears again.

On Friday, the Labor Dept reported that U.S. employers added 303,000 net new jobs in March – an incredibly high number at this “mature” point in an economic recovery. It was the 4th straight month with employment gains above 250k. By comparison, the U.S. economy managed just 166,000 new jobs per month pre-pandemic in 2019.